Economists now, on average, predict inflation will be 2.6 per cent this year, up from 2.2 per cent before the election, according to forecast aggregator Consensus Economics, due to the risk that Trump’s biggest policy pledges on immigration, tariffs and tax cuts, and cutting red tape could raise the cost of living.

And almost as expensive due to years of cash flowing in to escape the inflation in neighbouring countries such as Argentina. What’s nicer than an ocean-view apartment to preserve your wealth in real terms?

Reports of the demise of US inflation have been greatly exaggerated. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss the continuing high numbers and what the Fed might do about it this year. Also they go long Ohio State and short New Year’s resolutions.

ECB cuts the deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.75 per cent as expected and offers little shift in tone from December as it continues to move policy away from restrictive territory

After experience of Biden administration, fighting price rises likely to be political priority over targeting economic growth

Yields down, stocks up. After government bonds sold off sharply the week before, buyers were back after favourable inflation prints calmed investors’ nerves in the US and UK in the past week. As far as returning to normal it might be as close as we are going to get for some time.

The Fed said the job market is “solid,” and noted that the unemployment rate “has stabilized at a low level in recent months.”

Enter Donald Trump. The new US president could call on Opec. He can pledge to ratchet up oil sanctions on Russia to the point where their impact becomes more acute: these would target not only producers, but refiners, ports, insurers and the shadow fleet. He can also apply more political pressure on China, India and Turkey to support compliance.

In a well-trailed move, the Bank of Japan on Friday raised the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, taking it to 0.5 per cent — its highest level in nearly two decades.

Bond markets in the UK may be more sensitive to fiscal credibility following the turbulence after the 2022 Liz Truss budget. But fiscal sustainability in the UK does not significantly differ from some peers,

Investors have already seen the yield on the 10-year Treasury rise from as little as 3.6 per cent in mid-September to about 4.8 per cent this month — its highest level since November 2023 — before falling back, slightly, to about 4.64 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The FOMC plans to meet eight times in 2025 to evaluate the state of the economy and adjust policies as needed. At its final meeting of 2024, the Committee lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points,