When Bob flips a coin and announces the result, what can we really know about which coin he chose? This video builds probability trees to reveal how new evidence systematically updates our beliefs, ...

Machine Learning gets all the marketing hype, but are we overlooking Bayesian Networks? Here's a deeper look at why "Bayes Nets" are underrated - especially when it comes to addressing probability and ...

We suggest a new method for integrating volatility information for estimating the value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk of a portfolio. This new method is developed from the perspective of ...

The main focus of this short course will be the Bayesian aspect of it. That means this is a slightly more advanced course requiring some knowledge of basic probability, regression methods, and the R ...

"Yes or no: was there once life on Mars?" I can't say. "What about intelligent life?"' That seems most unlikely, but again, I can't really say. The simple yes-or-no framework has no place for shadings ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple concept behind Bayes' rule, an approach to calculating probabilities, first ...

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...